{"id":33653,"date":"2026-09-15T12:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T10:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newtonvaureal.com\/?p=33653"},"modified":"2026-10-15T12:59:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T10:59:21","slug":"vers-toujours-plus-de-ruptures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newtonvaureal.com\/fr\/actualite\/vers-toujours-plus-de-ruptures\/","title":{"rendered":"Vers toujours plus de ruptures ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"33653\" class=\"elementor elementor-33653\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-bd88b14 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"bd88b14\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-452e60f\" data-id=\"452e60f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2485538 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2485538\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Conflits arm\u00e9s, guerre commerciale \u00e0 coups de droits de douane, catastrophes climatiques \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, risques technologiques : ce ne sont plus des sujets d&rsquo;actualit\u00e9 s\u00e9par\u00e9s. Ce sont quatre sources de pression qui convergent, au m\u00eame moment, sur nos cha\u00eenes d&rsquo;approvisionnement.<\/p><p><strong>Le climat, d&rsquo;abord.<\/strong> La France a encha\u00een\u00e9 52 \u00e0 53 jours de vagues de chaleur depuis mi-juin 2026, un record absolu depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s en 1947. R\u00e9sultat direct sur l&rsquo;agriculture : rendements c\u00e9r\u00e9aliers en baisse de 15 \u00e0 25% selon les r\u00e9gions, production laiti\u00e8re en recul de 10 \u00e0 15%. Des p\u00e9nuries sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 annonc\u00e9es et une \u00ab\u00a0crise l\u00e9gumi\u00e8re majeure\u00a0\u00bb \u00e0 venir selon Prince de Bretagne. Deux fili\u00e8res qui remontent jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 nos assiettes, avec des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9videntes sur les co\u00fbts d&rsquo;achat de toute la fili\u00e8re agroalimentaire.<\/p><p><strong>La g\u00e9opolitique,<\/strong> ensuite. Suite aux tensions dans le d\u00e9troit d&rsquo;Ormuz, le prix du baril de Brent est pass\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 69 \u00e0 115 dollars, soit +67%. Dans son sillage, le PET utilis\u00e9 pour les bouteilles est pass\u00e9 de 800 \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 1 400 euros la tonne en deux mois, soit +75% \u2014 d&rsquo;autant plus critique que l&rsquo;offre europ\u00e9enne s&rsquo;est d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9duite apr\u00e8s l&rsquo;arr\u00eat de deux usines ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Un sc\u00e9nario qui n&rsquo;est pas sans rappeler la crise du verre post-Covid.<\/p><p><strong>La guerre commerciale,<\/strong> aussi. D\u00e9but ao\u00fbt, Washington a impos\u00e9 un droit de douane additionnel de 12,5% sur les produits chinois, fragilisant une tr\u00eave d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9caire. Le taux tarifaire global sur les importations chinoises oscille d\u00e9sormais entre 31 et 41%. Rien n&rsquo;est stabilis\u00e9 \u2014 chaque semaine peut rebattre les cartes des co\u00fbts d&rsquo;achat.<\/p><p><strong>La technologie, <\/strong>enfin. On parle beaucoup de climat et de g\u00e9opolitique, on oublie trop souvent le cyber. Selon le dernier BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report, les cyber-attaques sont d\u00e9sormais la 2e cause de disruption cit\u00e9e par les entreprises, juste derri\u00e8re les d\u00e9faillances fournisseurs. Et selon le BCI Horizon Scan Report, les pannes IT\/t\u00e9l\u00e9coms restent le type d&rsquo;incident le plus fr\u00e9quemment d\u00e9sign\u00e9 comme \u00ab\u00a0le plus disruptif\u00a0\u00bb de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e. Une supply chain peut \u00eatre solide sur le papier \u2014 fournisseurs diversifi\u00e9s, stocks tampons, contrats b\u00e9ton \u2014 et s&rsquo;arr\u00eater net \u00e0 cause d&rsquo;un syst\u00e8me qui tombe.<\/p><p>Pour factualiser (certaines) de ces tensions, il existe un thermom\u00e8tre : le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/gscpi#\/interactive\"><strong>GSCPI<\/strong><\/a> (que j&rsquo;ai personnellement d\u00e9couvert r\u00e9cemment \u2014 d&rsquo;o\u00f9 ce post \ud83d\ude42 )<\/p><p>Le Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, publi\u00e9 par la Fed de New York, sert \u00e0 jauger l&rsquo;\u00e9tat de tension des cha\u00eenes mondiales. Il reste aujourd&rsquo;hui \u00e0 son plus haut niveau depuis juillet 2022.<\/p><p>Mais le GSCPI mesure une pression. Il ne compte pas les ruptures qu&rsquo;elle finit par produire. \u00c0 ma connaissance, aucun indicateur synth\u00e9tique ne suit, dans le temps, le nombre r\u00e9el de ruptures d&rsquo;approvisionnement induites par ces chocs cumul\u00e9s \u2014 mati\u00e8re par mati\u00e8re, fili\u00e8re par fili\u00e8re.<\/p><p>On a un barom\u00e8tre. Pas de compteur.<\/p><p>On entre en pleine p\u00e9riode budg\u00e9taire. C&rsquo;est le moment o\u00f9 chaque euro d&rsquo;achat, chaque hypoth\u00e8se de co\u00fbt mati\u00e8re, chaque sc\u00e9nario de risque doit \u00eatre challeng\u00e9 pour l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir.<\/p><p>Je d\u00e9marre une s\u00e9rie de posts sur ce th\u00e8me : comment d\u00e9risquer concr\u00e8tement sa supply chain dans ce contexte. Diversification fournisseurs, stocks strat\u00e9giques, indicateurs de pilotage \u2014 je partagerai des leviers concrets, un par un.<\/p><p>Quels sont vos sujets pour le Budget 2027 et au-del\u00e0 ? Dites-le-nous en commentaire.<\/p><p>#supplychain #d\u00e9risquage #GSCPI #budget #risque<\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/xavier-fiorina\/\"><strong>xavier fiorina<\/strong><\/a><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Conflits arm\u00e9s, guerre commerciale \u00e0 coups de droits de douane, catastrophes climatiques \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, risques technologiques : ce ne sont plus des sujets d&rsquo;actualit\u00e9 s\u00e9par\u00e9s. Ce sont quatre sources de &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":33658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-nos-articles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vers toujours plus de ruptures ? - Newton.Vaureal Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newtonvaureal.com\/fr\/actualite\/vers-toujours-plus-de-ruptures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vers toujours plus de ruptures ? - Newton.Vaureal Consulting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conflits arm\u00e9s, guerre commerciale \u00e0 coups de droits de douane, catastrophes climatiques \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, risques technologiques : ce ne sont plus des sujets d&rsquo;actualit\u00e9 s\u00e9par\u00e9s. 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